September left the GTA market in a holding pattern. Condo prices are falling faster than the rest of the market, and new low-rise homes are drawing buyers with a larger HST rebate. Here's what the latest numbers say and what to weigh before you move.
$605,257 average GTA condo price in September, down 7.7% | 1,316 condo sales in September, down 7.8% |
$130,000 maximum combined HST rebate on eligible new homes | Mar 31, 2027 last day to sign an agreement for the enhanced rebate |
September 2026 at a Glance
TRREB reported 5,040 sales across the GTA in September, down 9.0% from a year earlier. New listings fell 14.4% to 16,500 and active listings fell 9.3% to 26,131. The average price was $1,006,409, down 5.1%, and the benchmark price (HPI Composite) was down 4.7%.
TRREB described buyers as being in "a holding pattern," citing uncertainty about the economy, inflation and borrowing costs.
| Segment | September 2026 | Change vs. Sept 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| All home types: sales | 5,040 | -9.0% |
| All home types: average price | $1,006,409 | -5.1% |
| Condo apartments: sales | 1,316 | -7.8% |
| Condo apartments: average price | $605,257 | -7.7% |
| Semi-detached: average price (GTA) | $1,015,202 | -0.2% |
| Semi-detached: average price (City of Toronto) | $1,207,884 | +2.1% |
Condos: The Entry Point
At $605,257, the average condo price remains well below every other home type in the GTA, and the decline is steeper than the overall market. It also differs by area.
- City of Toronto: $640,248, down 6.1%
- 905 regions: $533,654, down 12.0%
For first-time buyers, that means more choice and more room to negotiate. But the price isn't the whole cost. Compare the total monthly cost, including maintenance fees, and look at the building's financial health, including the reserve fund and management. Ask for the status certificate early and have a lawyer review it.
For sellers, buyers are comparing several similar units, sometimes in the same building. Realistic pricing and strong presentation matter more than they did a few years ago.
Semi-Detached: A Pocket of Strength
While most segments are softer, semi-detached homes held their ground. GTA semi prices were essentially flat (down 0.2%), and City of Toronto semis rose 2.1% to an average of $1,207,884. It's a reminder to look at your specific neighbourhood and property type, not just the GTA-wide average.
New Homes: The Rebate Effect
Ontario and the federal government expanded the HST rebate on new homes for a limited time. According to TRREB, eligible buyers may qualify for up to $130,000 in combined federal and provincial rebates.
| Purchase price | Enhanced rebate |
|---|---|
| Up to $1.5 million | Up to $130,000 (full amount) |
| $1.5 million to $1.85 million | Phased out as the price rises |
| $1.85 million and over | Not eligible for the enhanced rebate |
The agreement of purchase and sale generally must be entered into between April 1, 2026 and March 31, 2027. The rebate is not limited to first-time buyers, but the usual rules apply: it's for a new or substantially renovated home bought from a builder, generally as a primary residence.
The Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) reported that GTA new home sales rose from 3,645 in Q2 2025 to 8,410 in Q2 2026, with nearly all of the increase in single-family homes. New condo sales didn't see the same boost.
If you're looking at a new build, ask:
- Is the rebate already included in the advertised price?
- Will the builder credit it at closing, or will I pay the full HST and claim it afterward?
- Do I meet the eligibility rules, including the occupancy requirements?
What This Means for You
- Buyers: the market rewards preparation. Know your budget, your total monthly costs and what you'd do if a good option appears.
- Sellers: price to today's comparables, not last year's.
- Renters thinking of buying: run the numbers on both. With condo prices lower, buying may be more affordable than it was. It's worth a conversation with a mortgage professional.
Sources: TRREB Market Watch, September 2026, TRREB: Ontario enhanced new housing rebate, CP24 on BILD Q2 report.
Thinking about buying or selling a condo this fall? Reach out to our team for a current look at your building and your numbers.
This article is for general information only and is not legal, tax or financial advice. Market figures are from TRREB's September 2026 Market Watch and BILD. Rebate details are summarized from TRREB's guide and may change; confirm eligibility with the CRA, your builder and your lawyer.
