We flagged in our fall preview that July's steep supply squeeze was the thing to watch heading into fall. TRREB's August numbers are now in, and they tell a more moderate story than July's did.
The Numbers
According to TRREB's August 2026 Market Watch:
5,057 home sales, down 2.1% from August 2025
12,075 new listings, down 14.1% year-over-year
Benchmark price of $925,900, down 4.5% year-over-year and down 0.9% month-over-month
Average selling price of $993,410, down 2.8% year-over-year and down 1.1% from July
Why This Reads Differently Than July
July's story was about a widening gap — sales barely dipping while listings fell sharply, a sign of tightening. August's numbers show that gap narrowing rather than widening further. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales actually eased slightly month-over-month while new listings ticked up — the opposite pattern from what drove July's tightening narrative. That suggests the sharp, supply-led tightening we saw in July was more of a late-summer blip than the start of a sustained trend.
Months of supply also rose, from roughly 4.4 to 4.8 months, and the sales-to-new-listings ratio held essentially steady at just under 42% — comfortably within TRREB's "balanced market" range rather than tipping toward sellers.
The Property-Type Breakdown
Detached homes: average price $1.29 million, down 1.8% year-over-year — still the most price-resilient segment
Semi-detached: average price $932,000, down 4.9% year-over-year
Freehold townhouses: average price $882,000, down 6.8% year-over-year — the softest freehold segment this month
Condo apartments: average price $618,000, down 3.8% year-over-year
What TRREB's Chief Information Officer Is Saying
TRREB's Jason Mercer has framed the current environment as one where ownership housing has stayed relatively affordable over the past year, with softer prices offsetting mortgage rates that have held fairly flat — but pointed to ongoing uncertainty around U.S. trade relations and future inflation and borrowing costs as the main factor still keeping some buyers on the sidelines.
What This Means If You're Buying
The urgency from July's numbers has eased. With months of supply rising and listings picking back up, buyers aren't facing the same tightening pressure that defined July.
Detached homes remain the most resilient segment on price — if you're set on a freehold, don't expect the same negotiating room you're seeing on condos and townhouses right now.
Condos and freehold townhouses currently offer the most room to negotiate, given they're posting the steepest year-over-year price declines.
What This Means If You're Selling
A more balanced market means pricing accuracy matters more than ever. With months of supply back up near 5, an overpriced listing has more competition to lose ground to than it did in July's tighter conditions.
Detached and semi-detached sellers retain more leverage than condo or townhouse sellers in the current environment.
The Bottom Line
August's numbers suggest July's sharp tightening was largely a seasonal, late-summer pattern rather than the start of a sustained sellers'-market shift — the broader market has settled back into balanced territory. That said, TRREB's own read is that a fall pickup in demand meeting still-constrained listings could tighten things again if inventory doesn't keep pace, which is exactly the dynamic worth watching over the next couple of months.
Want a read on how these numbers apply to your specific neighbourhood or price point? Contact our team for a current conversation.
